The Climate Change Challenge

President Biden’s returning to the Paris Climate Accord, halting the Keystone Pipeline project and putting new restrictions on oil and gas production is good news; but it is only the beginning of a long challenge for the leader who has vowed to become the climate president. As he vows to cut fossil fuel emissions, the oil and gas industry is immediately mobilizing to challenge any changes. Executive orders are immediately viewed as job killers in an already over stressed economy. Biden counters that new production in areas like electric cars will create and replace jobs. Last year was the hottest ever recorded. Environmentalists say that the challenges have never been greater. The US has to be a partner in climate change with the world.

It’s easy to be focused on one’s own country, so I was interested in a modeling in the New York Times this morning that allowed me to look at the primary risks for Canada. It is well worth looking at the model which presents the insights modeled by the company Four Twenty Seven with comments placed on top of maps of the areas.

The chart posits that our major climate hazard in Canada will be flooding - followed by wildfires, water stress, cyclones and sea level rise. These could affect 60% of the population. Our gross domestic product and agriculture could also be affected by at least one of the hazards.

We won’t be alone - 90% of world populations will be threatened. Some of the figures are staggering and defy imagination. In the first 18 years of this century, 165 billion people were challenged with flooding. It will be even greater by 2040.

Climate change has unequal effects. The poor suffer most and economic inequality increases. Other factors, like population density add to the discrepancy and food shortages and infrastructure decline, lead to mass migrations. Rich countries like ours are not immune from the challenges The Covid - 19 pandemic has brought home the lesson that we are all connected and the lesson is immediate. The climate pandemic is much more serious but easier to deny.

Here are some of the perceptions of Americans about climate change identified by PRRI (Public Religion Research Institute), a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to conducting independent research at the intersection of religion, culture, and public policy. I will try to find comparable information re Canadian perspectives later.

• Americans rank climate change last on a list of important issues. Only five percent of Americans say climate change is the most important issue facing the U.S. today. 

• When asked which environmental problem is most important for the current administration to tackle, nearly 3-in-10 (29%) Americans point to air, water, and soil pollution. One-quarter (25%) of Americans say climate change is the most pressing environment problem, while a similar number (23%) identify water shortages and drought. Fewer Americans cite the shrinking of wilderness areas and animal habitats (11%) or endangered species (4%) as the most critical environmental issue.

• Americans are significantly more likely to believe that people living in poorer developing countries will be harmed by climate change than they are to say that they personally, or U.S. residents as a whole, will be negatively affected by climate change.

• Less than one-quarter (24%) of Americans believe that they will be personally harmed a great deal by climate change, while 30% say climate change will affect them a moderate amount. More than 4-in-10 Americans say climate change will have only a little (23%) or no impact (22%) on them personally.

• The Climate Change Concern Index—a composite measure that combines perceptions about whether climate change is a crisis and whether it will have adverse personal effects—finds that nearly 3-in-10 (29%) Americans are very concerned about climate change, 21% are somewhat concerned, 29% are somewhat unconcerned, and 21% are very unconcerned.

  • Close to half (46%) of Americans say that the earth is getting warmer and that these changes are primarily the result of human activity. We characterize this group as climate change “Believers.”

  • One-quarter (25%) of Americans believe the global temperature is rising, but say the change is due to natural fluctuations in the earth’s environment or are uncertain about its cause. We describe this group as climate change “Sympathizers.”

  • Finally, more than one-quarter (26%) of Americans say there is no solid evidence that the earth’s temperature has been rising over the past few decades. We call this group climate change “Skeptics.” Skeptics were asked to share, in their words, why they believe the earth’s temperature is not increasing. Answers varied considerably, but the most frequently cited reason (33% of all open-ended answers) was that they have not noticed a change in the weather around them.)

• Climate change Believers are substantially more likely to than Sympathizers or Skeptics to score high on the Climate Change Concern Index.

Clearly what we believe counts - the challenge is to determine what it is base on

Misinformation Wars

One of my favorite Dave Frishberg Songs is “Marooned in a Blizzard of Lies”. It seems to have been background music in the past two or three months, but even if we now have a twice impeached person in the American White House for a few more days, I am less confident that we have survived the misinformation wars - even with 20,000 troops assembled to reduce the risk of violence.

Misinformation has never been easier to produce. You can find an image and put a slogan on top of it and disseminate it on social media in less than two minutes and have others share it hundreds of thousands of times. Video editing is a bit trickier but possible. The effects can be visceral – immediate anxiety, increasing to anger and leading to violence. Words and images don’t always lead to violence – but when it occurs, they have almost always preceded it. That should give us pause.

Most us watching from a distance in Canada, but inundated with US news are still confounded by the actions of a rising star like Josh Hawley. How could someone with his credentials – Stanford, Yale Law School, clerking for the Chief Justice be seen raising a clenched fist to rioters and continue to claim a lost election? His local newspaper the St Louis Post Dispatch now claims he has blood on his hands and accuses him of blind ambition. His rise not be as easy for him now as he meets disgust from his own party and a lost book contract. But even blind ambition doesn’t seem to account for something so evil in either intent or consequence.

Katherine Stewart writing in the New York Times sees something deeper accounting for his actions. Citing an article that Hawley wrote for Christianity Today, she views him as part of a religious-right framework that wants America to return to religious roots that are endangered by liberal ideas of freedom. Who knew that the problem was that America had succumbed to the Pelagian heresy? Hawley says conforming to what religious leaders say is correct is how society should be governed – and that includes politics. My own response to that as a person who is still a member of a faith community (Anglican/ Episcopal) doesn’t land me in such a place – that it is okay for a lawyer to pretend an election is stolen to bring in some kind of religious oligarchy - just won’t wash.

Why do such views gain traction at all? Hawley was not alone. In another article Stewart wrote, the religious right is estimated as 28 percent of the US population who identify as white evangelical or born again Christian; 76% of them voted for Trump. Stewart cites several reasons why they prevail and why they are likely to continue to do so. Economic inequality exists and it can be used to foster discontent. Paradoxically much of this is financed by wealthy individuals who fund the religious right to protect their own wealth. Persons in smaller communities receive much of their news through local or regional religious publications that reinforce their views. Religious organizations of all types are well organized and networked. For these reasons, views on subjects like abortion, appointment of judges and religious freedom and can become key issues to organize around. A president’s appointment of 220 court judges and three to the Supreme Court is worth overlooking obvious shortcomings of misogynous bullying, racial tweets or conspiracy narratives of stolen elections.

Stewart notes:

“While many outsiders continue to think of Christian nationalism as a social movement that rises from the ground up, it is in fact a political movement that operates mostly from the top down. The rank-and-file of the movement is diverse and comes to its churches with an infinite variety of motivations and concerns, but the leaders are far more unified. . . . (They promote) a radical ideology that is profoundly hostile to democracy and pluralism, and a certain political style that seeks to provoke moral panic, rewards the paranoid, and views every partisan conflict as a conflagration, the end of the world. Partisan politics is the lifeblood of the movement.”

Are there solutions for the rest of us? Another Times writer suggests we can ask questions such as:

• Who is the author?

• What is behind the information provided?

• What is the evidence?

• What do other sources say?

When we encounter a meme that seems suspicious, we can check the original image. We can avoid using social media as a news source. We can also resist the impulse to “share” and “like” which enhances dissemination. We can also make decisions about what we choose to be our trusted sources of information.

But how do we convince others to do this? David Brooks, writing this morning is somewhat pessimistic:

“The split we are seeing is not theological or philosophical. It’s a division between those who have become detached from reality and those who, however right wing, are still in the real world.

Hence, it’s not an argument. You can’t argue with people who have their own separate made-up set of facts. You can’t have an argument with people who are deranged by the euphoric rage of what Erich Fromm called group narcissism — the thoughtless roar of those who believe their superior group is being polluted by alien groups.”

He goes on to cite another writer whose prescription is to separate leaders from the group. If Stewart’s analysis is correct this may produce some hope in a new era of government.

Epiphany

 Some quotations:

 Save me, Oh Lord – for the waters have risen above my neck ( Psalm 69.1)

 From Wikipedia: An epiphany (from the ancient Greek ἐπιφάνεια, epiphanea, "manifestation, striking appearance") is an experience of a sudden and striking realization. . . Epiphanies are relatively rare occurrences and generally follow a process of significant thought about a problem. Often they are triggered by a new and key piece of information, but importantly, a depth of prior knowledge is required to allow the leap of understanding.

 And also this: 

Western churches generally celebrate the Visit of the Magi as the revelation of the Incarnation of the infant Christ, and commemorate the Feast of the Epiphany on January 6.

 Some news stories were hard to find on television on Wednesday.  US Congress was no longer dominated by a single party.  Covid 19  hospitalizaed cases and deaths reached the highest numbers ever. There was nothing about Epiphany as a celebration of the visit of the Wise Men until a message announcing a link to a live streamed service at my parish church came via email. I left CNN to attend it online.  With the strains of Gregorian Chant, sung by single alternating voices complying with the rules of public health and an engaging homily, and the noting of the passing of two friends – one far too early from cancer and the other probably only from advanced age - it was a moment of Kairos in a world of Chaos.

 *I lived for three years in Manhattan in the early 60s. My eldest son came into the world as an American by birth.  It is a country I have admired and loved ever since my first visit as a young child. I have been totally mystified by its support of a president who seemed to have no qualifications for office and gained notoriety as a reality TV celebrity who in real life cheated on wives, businesses, banks and taxes. As someone who had inherited milions he was an unlikely saviour of people who felt left out and disadvantaged, but were eager to become his disciples.  But like everyone else I fell captive to news in print and social media that was all Trump all the Time.  His ability to capture out our attention Trumped all.

 I’m not complicit in marching, vandalizing or believing conspiracy theories. But if there is a personal epiphany, it is in realizing how much attention I gave to this person.  I read of a refusal of a sitting president to concede his loss in an election and his many attempts to contest it in the courts with baseless or non-existent claims. I thought that press accounts of correction were enough.  I thought that resignations of colleagues was enough.  I thought that invitations to protest by a sitting president to overthrow the government were disgraceful, but that law enforcement and curfews were enough.  I thought that even though some politicians wanted to engage in spurious theatre without risking the outcome - and a chairman adhering to the constitution was enough.  I was wrong.

 While those who were making those claims, thugs were invading and desecrating the Capitol, urged on to violence by the defeated president, his family members and their cohort. It appears to have been a wake-up call for some members of congress to have a similar epiphany – a sudden realization of what they have supported and how close they came to death – perhaps their own – but certainly that of democracy. 

What happens to a man or woman who runs for office with a view to making the world a better place and then loses any sense of what it true - just to stay in power?  What young person is going to undertake a position of office to risk being spit upon, called unspeakable names or even murdered?  How do you deal with someone using a Bible as a prop after tear gassing peaceful protesters - and then goes on to love thugs and domestic terrorists?

 I’m not suggesting that hanging out at an online church service is the answer.  Religions of all kinds have much to answer for. But however we find it, the sense of  decency and sacredness of places and institutions has to be part of  reality however one can find it.

 And I’m not about to join those condemning the leader of the senate and the vice president and others for finally doing the right thing as too little too late.  Sometimes epiphanies take a lifetime – including my own.  What makes the difference is a distinction between habits – some chosen, but more often learned and assumed unconsciously – and practice, which involves choices.  I along with others have choices to make – in terms of time and energy and focus and determine what I value.  It’s a new day.  

Gratitude

Last year on the day after Christmas, family members and I boarded a plane in Toronto. Five and a half hours later we were enjoying a late lunch at a lovely Chinese restaurant in Richmond, British Columbia. We texted relatives that we would catch the six o’clock ferry to join them on Bowen Island and anticipated the celebration of marriage of a family member and her new husband the next day.

This year some of the same family members picked me up to transport me to the one permitted household - with presents for exchange,, a floral arrangement sent from the BC relatives, home-made cookies from an exchange among Toronto friends, and my dinner contribution of an English trifle.  We settled in for a leisurely lunch, while my son did the cooking and viewed an interchange on his laptop in the kitchen and the rest of us visited with extended family members on another one in the dinning room – one from a recently purchased schoolhouse getaway in Eastern Ontario, one from a dacha outside Moscow, another from an apartment in Winnipeg, Manitoba at minus forty degrees – where Fahrenheit and Centigrade temperatures actually meet – colder than the home of one of the residents from Finland – and another stuck in Ottawa where the meeting of the Canadian Senate kept him from flying home in time. 

 On Christmas Eve we had gathered on Zoom for an even larger gathering where another family member read “A Child’s Christmas in Wales”.  Three generations of one family had lived there, either teaching at or attending one of the United World Colleges. Members were now spread out in different countries but still seeing one another on the screen.  Another presented a radio presentation, where he acted as Trinculo in Shakespeares’ The Tempest - reprising a performance that his grandfather had done decades earlier. Another accompanied himself on a guitar while singing a Psalm in both Hebrew and English. His sister played and sang a carol. His aunt played a clarinet to show us what she could do after working with one for only six months. I read my Covid parody.

And all this is seen as possible – and normal during a pandemic. And we would never have thought to connect with so many at once - until we couldn’t do so in person.

 How different it is from the pandemic of 1918. My father was 18 years old that year and my mother was 15.  I never thought to ask them what that pandemic was like for them. This morning’s paper details some similarities with the present one.  The number of patients strained the hospital and the number of deaths - 50,000 in Canada – 50 million around the world – meant the large number could not be interred quickly enough.  Businesses were shut down.  Prime Ministers caught the flu.  The Stanley Cup was postponed.  But there were differences too.  Children and young adults were the most threatened. There was little government help – either national or provincial – and local governments had to work on their own.

 Let’s hope that some of the patterns don’t recur.  There were swings between opening up and needing to shut down again.  There was initial avoidance of the severity of the pandemic. There was resistance to closings.  Public health officials were both congratulated and denigrated.  Health workers were infected and shortages were severe.  Quack cures prevailed.  Indigenous communities were hit hardest. The disease faded away in most countries but Canada continued to have sporadic outbreaks until 2020.

 The key difference is the development of vaccines. Some were developed in 1918 at Queen’s University and by Connaught Laboratories at the University of Toronto.  What scientists did not know then was that the disease was produced by a virus.  Their vaccines did reduce the severity but vaccine development with both new understanding and speed of production were decades away.  We are so fortunate to live in the new century where over time we will overcome the effects of the current one.

 The amazing opportunities afforded by technology where we can see each other from a distance and be safely together in new ways is so taken for granted that we forget the creators of so many inventions.  I searched for a timeline and found one here

 And I was fascinated by those with impact on my own life:

My Mediaeval Manuscript

The handwritten page from a psalter hanging above my electronic piano had some precursors. Anod of course they were followed by the printing press to allow books to spread through the known universe, open up learning and change the world

My great grandfather hated the telephone

When the family in Parry Sound installed on the first in the town, he hated the idea of people intruding on his privacy. Now I text my grandchildren.

This doesn’t even show how I do it now

A Google Nest responding to my oral request to play some Christmas Carols on Combo - with a number of the best ones sounding in three different rooms on three small units.

My TV watching at home started in 1950

Now I ask my TV to head toward Prime or YouTube on the big screen with hundreds of choices in spectacular colour - or switch back to one of the many cable stations - not exactly like the small screen of the past.

Communication machines

In university, the weekly newsletter in my college was printed on a ditto machine - and I still have a purple version. Then came the fax machine in the 80e where in 1985 one board member had one - and 1986 where only one member didn’t - and no parctically no one does. I’d still like it better if my all in one printer would print in colour even though only the demo does.

From turning on a desktop in 1984

To meeting the family on Zoom in 2020. It’s been an amazing journey through it all.

As I write, I am restricted to my apartment but my life is both safe and rich.  It is so easy to forget how fortunate I am compared to most of the world during a pandemic.  Mu family came up with an innovative way to enjoy company on my balcony in cold weather – electric fleece throws. The view from there of the canopy of trees is beautiful even missing their former leaves and the lake and sky still dominate the extensive built environment.

An obituary of  famous nature writer Barry Lopez reminds me to put all this technology in perspective.  We, like the wolves he spent time with and wrote about so lovingly, are also creatures of the planet.

 The New York Times quotes the British writer Robert Macfarlane as he  put it this way in The Guardian in 2005 writing about the author. “Throughout his writings, Lopez returns to the idea that natural landscapes are capable of bestowing a grace upon those who pass through them. Certain landscape forms, in his vision, possess a spiritual correspondence. The stern curve of a mountain slope, a nest of wet stones on a beach, the bent trunk of a windblown tree: These abstract shapes can call out in us a goodness we might not have known we possessed.”

 The technological and the natural are part of our lives in the Anthropocene and both bring us grace..  Many of our journeys this season involved a much smaller carbon footprint, though they depended on electricity and that is a small benefit to the planet.  The human connections in my small world were made well – while all around us there are evidence of such connections and care that are made badly. So much will depend on our choices and sense of a sacred that we must receive with grace as we move ahead.

In a lighter seasonal vein

T’was a night during Covid, when all through the state

Statistics were rising, the news was not great.

The face masks were hung by the front door with care,

In hopes that the virus would not soon be there

The ICUs filled up with folks in their beds,

With visions of long-term disruption in heads.

With hand sanitizer, not touching my face,

and nary an option for hugs in this place

Out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,

I sprang to the front door to view all the matter.

Away to the doorstep I flew like a flash,

Opened the front door and hoped for some cash.

The Liberals on breast of the new-fallen snow

Gave promise at mid-day to dollars below,

But what to my wondering eyes should appear,

But the DoorDash attendant with restaurant beer,

And an Instacart messenger dragging a cart

(I knew in a moment my tips had been smart).

More rapid than eagles the groceries came,

And we named all the heroes and villains by name

Yay, Trudeau! yay, Theresa! yay, Deena, yay Rerx

Yay Fauci, Yay Sangay! Boo Anti-Vax Jerks.

Leave stuff on the porch! Six feet from the wall

Now dash away! dash away! dash away all!"

As dry throats, that before the new virus comes on

When they meet with a test are immediately gone

So up to the house-top the droplets they flew,

To infect a new household with Covid to rue

But then, in a twinkling, I heard on the air

From CBC, NBC ways to repair!

As I rolled up my sleeve, and was turning around,

Moderna attendant came in with a bound.

She was dressed all in Hazmat, from head to her toes,

With vaccine in hand to attend to my woes.

A bundle of vials she had flung on the table,

To use on my arm quite as quickly as able

My eyes -- how they shut fast! My arm it was bare

To welcome the vaccine, about to go there.

My droll little mouth was drawn up with a wince

Bur heart with more hope than we hadn’t had since

The virus descended in March of this year

As we sheltered in place with a sense of new fear

The virus was scary and full of infection

That senators said there should be no election

Instead, the politicos offered a CERB

Since then, the word “pay back” is now the new verb.

Health officers all became the new stars

And most public transport gave way to our cars.

We baked, we did puzzles, we Netlixed to death

And hoped we’d live through this before our last breath

We watched anti-vaccers with moments of dread

Like POTUS, they thought it was all in the head

He was chubby and plump, a right dangerous elf,

And he did lose the White House because of himself.

A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,

Soon gave us to live in perpetual dread;

He Twittered a lot, but went naught to his work,

And spouted conspiracies. Then as a jerk,

And laying his finger aside of his nose,

And giving a nod, up to pardons he rose;

He sprang to his plane, to his team gave a wave,

And we hoped he was heading quite soon for a grave.

But we heard him exclaim, ere he drove out of sight,

Leave the Covid to Joe - and he’ll soon get it right!